Great forecast ;)
Excuse me from interjecting, but how is it a great forecast when spring hasn’t started yet??
Just so you guys know, it’s an outlook at present.
Very informative. Thank you x
No worried! Thank you!
From sun output, to squirrel nuts and siberian snow cover, this forecast is great reading! Thanks Ollie, for a heads up on this.
No problem at all mate! Second one comes out on the 1st November!
Very great work , respect .With love from the snowgang to you .
Thanks mate , i realy respect this.
Winterexpert WeermanAshoka Ryan J . Gr from Rdam Holland.
No problem mate! Cheers!
Thank you so much!
Hi from Finland! Very informative read. I think that the UKMO model may be too cold. Three months of easterlies is too much even if averaged. But if that really happens it could lead to really unusual phenomenon. I mean that the Baltic See could freeze over. Last time that happened was 1946-47 if I´m correct.
We will see that. Mean temperature usually drops below zero ( winter begins ) in northern Finland by 22nd October. It is 16 days away. Hmm, and soon it is Christmas again :D
Thank you Marko! Yes interesting that the UKMO model says that, the signs are all very promising, I’ve also noticed that the Siberian snow is really picking up. It has a correlation with cold winters for us. Hope winter is good for you, do you have twitter?
love your theory about the berries Ollie,it may interest you to know I picked 9 lbs of Blackberries here in South west Ireland(kerry) a few weeks ago,never had that much before,our winters apart from the bad ones of a couple of years ago are usually wet and muggy,it will be interesting to see how it works out this year!
A very interesting theory it is! Thanks for reading! Yes well the signs look very good as of present!
Fascinating read and let’s hope for some sledging days, but not too many!!!! Looking forward to the next report already. Keep up the weather forecasts :-)
Ahhh thank you Charlotte! Nice to see your reply on here, hope all is well
I´m bit old-fashioned guy, so I don´t have twitter. I´m pretty sure that there will be a lot of snow all around Europe next winter. You just have to be patient.
Yes I’m with you on the snow, keep watching out Marko.
hope you are right! I see the present cold spell has already gone totally against what many forecast for this month….just the second week of their forecasts! GIF charts show strong high builds over Scandinavia towards end of month bringing strong east / south east winds.
Thank you Stephen! Yes I’ve been seeing signs of blocking in the October forecast for some time and I think it could continue
Here is a link to Italian winter forecast, which is based on a brand new October pattern index. Papers are not yet translated in English. According to the authors this index helps greatly forecasting AO-index of the upcoming winter.
That’s very interesting Marko. A shame it can’t be translated but I feel that this could be a good new indicator. Apparently it has 90%+ accuracy. Thanks for sharing.
I used google translator to read that Italian forum. Methodology behind that index is not yet known. I think papers are under peer review process and cannot be published yet.
Thank you for that Marko. It’s very interesting but I never have seen this before? I assume it’s new? Thanks again.
Well, you didn’t get your short range forecast right at all for December… Time to hang up your barometer ;)
Thanks for the encouragement pal. Considering I’m only 16 I thought it was worth a go. No chance of me hanging up the barometer.
I’m extremely impressed with your writing skills and also with the layout on your weblog.
Is this a paid theme or did you customize it yourself?
Anyway keep up the nice quality writing, it is rare to see a nice
blog like this one today.
Thank you! Yes it’s a wordpress blog that I’ve customised as to how I wanted it! I’m glad you like it!
What’s up mates, fastidious paragraph and good arguments commented
here, I am genuinely enjoying by these.
Great forecasts here Ollie, have been a keen follower of your long range outlooks for a year now. I find them quite impressive, keep it up, if you’re doing an Autumn/Winter blog let me know :).
Doing a cruise from venice to barcelona in mid september to early October 2014 disembarking at Barcelona. cities visiting are Lake como, milan, venice, ravenna, dubrovnik, athens, kusadasi, mykonos, naples, rome, florence, toulon, barcelona and dubai.
Your information on weather for places wiulc bd grestlg sporeviatef.
Nice! It will be up soon!
Hi Ollie as you know many computer forecasts for the UK last Winter were totally wrong. The north eastern Seeboard of the U.S.A got our predicted Weather . I think this winter will be Wet & windy but Mild ! I hope I’m wrong ! But that’s the way I see it for South East England as of 5th September 2014.
Hi gary! I totally agree, that’s why I have only made this an outlook of the models and not a forecast, I will look into monthly forecasts more closely on their own! Cheers!
very good analisys. I have one question, if you know how is this OPI calculated.
Thank you! The OPI is calculated through detailed software which analyses weather model forecast runs :)
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