LONG RANGE-AUTUMN 2014

AUTUMN UK MODEL OUTLOOK

 

Hi guys!

 

So, I’m back with my long-range model discussions for the upcoming season: Autumn. We can say that summer has been a fairly good one this year, but will autumn disappoint? Let’s take a look at some of the models!

 

September

 

First thing is first; I am looking at the trends shown by the CFS V2 model monthly and weekly. As you probably remember, this is the American Model that gives long-range outputs. On the monthly outlook, I want you to notice that there is a ridge of above normal heights/pressure (yellow/orange) to the east or northeast. This has been a continuous trend through the members for a while now! A higher pressure in this area would suggest that the east would be drier and warmer, while the west of the UK would be more susceptible to an unsettled Atlantic attack!

 

It is also the same with the CFS V2 weekly forecasts, as we approach September, things seem to build to the east, further backing up this evidence! Much of these signals are what I expect to happen as I have seen these signals unfold.

 

glbz700MonInd1-2 glbz700MonInd1 glbz700MonInd1-1

wk3.wk4_20140817.z500

Another model I look at is the JMA Monthly Seasonal model. This is the Japanese model and it certainly seems as if it is reading from the same book as the CFS V2.

Yet again, high pressure building to the east and northeast leaving warmer and drier conditions to the east!

 

Y201408.D0900

 

October

 

As we look into the CFS V2 for October, we see that there is a trend through all members of some lower heights/lower pressure building over Greenland and the NW, with occasional higher pressure runs from the south. To me, this suggests an unsettled forecast for October, with more rainfall.

glbz700MonInd2-1 glbz700MonInd2-2 glbz700MonInd2

The JMA Seasonal Model as a whole looks also to display this trend!

Y201408-1.D0900

 

November

 

The CFS V2 Model shows us a very interesting scenario in the latter members. It shows a possibility of a colder wind (maybe the continent). As you see, there is lower heights over western Europe that could indicate a colder wind from the East. However, in the previous runs it looks pretty unsettled from the west! This one is anyone’s game!

glbz700MonInd3-1 glbz700MonInd3-2 glbz700MonInd3

JMA Model presents higher pressure to the north and south but leaves a clear gateway for the Atlantic. Very uncertain trends, as per usual with LR Models.

 

Y201408-2.D0900

 

Autumn as a whole (All Evidence Below)

 

  • The JMA Model shows us an average of quite an unsettled 3 month mean.
  • The Beijing Climate Model also shows an unsettled mean for 3 months.
  • The Met Office Ensemble Mean shows a similar trend.
  • A warm and significantly wetter JAMSTEC Model over 3 months would suggest an active Jetstream in the Autumn.
  • The Russian model shows a warm and wet Autumn, along with the Brazilian Model

 

2cat_20140801_z500_months24_global_deter_public composite-prec-prob-glb-HMC composite-tsrf-prob-glb-HMC CS201409_201411GLZ500L1 Screen Shot 2014-08-20 at 13.11.03 temp2.glob.SON2014.1aug2014 tprep.glob.SON2014.1aug2014

 

 

Summary from Model Suggestions

September: warmer and drier in the east of UK, higher pressure to the east.

October: Unsettled, lower pressure dominated. Take caution though.

November: Unsure, mixed signals.

3 Month Mean: Average of unsettled, warm and wet.

 

As I always sign off these discussions, this is not my forecast, it is a model discussion! Feel free to post your thoughts to me, I will soon be doing a September monthly forecast!

 

Cheers, take care!

 

Ollie Millin

37 thoughts on “LONG RANGE-AUTUMN 2014

  1. Pingback: #Reigate heavy rain thundery Thursday – Friday « Reigate Grammar School Weather Station

  2. Hi from Finland! Very informative read. I think that the UKMO model may be too cold. Three months of easterlies is too much even if averaged. But if that really happens it could lead to really unusual phenomenon. I mean that the Baltic See could freeze over. Last time that happened was 1946-47 if I´m correct.

    We will see that. Mean temperature usually drops below zero ( winter begins ) in northern Finland by 22nd October. It is 16 days away. Hmm, and soon it is Christmas again :D

    • Thank you Marko! Yes interesting that the UKMO model says that, the signs are all very promising, I’ve also noticed that the Siberian snow is really picking up. It has a correlation with cold winters for us. Hope winter is good for you, do you have twitter?
      Ollie

  3. love your theory about the berries Ollie,it may interest you to know I picked 9 lbs of Blackberries here in South west Ireland(kerry) a few weeks ago,never had that much before,our winters apart from the bad ones of a couple of years ago are usually wet and muggy,it will be interesting to see how it works out this year!

  4. I´m bit old-fashioned guy, so I don´t have twitter. I´m pretty sure that there will be a lot of snow all around Europe next winter. You just have to be patient.

  5. hope you are right! I see the present cold spell has already gone totally against what many forecast for this month….just the second week of their forecasts! GIF charts show strong high builds over Scandinavia towards end of month bringing strong east / south east winds.

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  10. Great forecasts here Ollie, have been a keen follower of your long range outlooks for a year now. I find them quite impressive, keep it up, if you’re doing an Autumn/Winter blog let me know :).

  11. Doing a cruise from venice to barcelona in mid september to early October 2014 disembarking at Barcelona. cities visiting are Lake como, milan, venice, ravenna, dubrovnik, athens, kusadasi, mykonos, naples, rome, florence, toulon, barcelona and dubai.
    Your information on weather for places wiulc bd grestlg sporeviatef.

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