LONG RANGE-SPRING 2014

SPRING FORECAST NUMBER 1

Good Evening,

 

So here we are at the time of Meteorological Spring and that means it’s time to take a look into how I think things may pan out.

 

I’m going to lay this out in months and explain how I form these decisions afterwards with a model run through.

 

MARCH

 

I think March will be a tale of two stories. The way I see it is that the first week will be quite average with some Atlantic formed weather systems making their way in and giving us some rain and windy conditions at times, however it will be nothing on what has previously happened. As you will see in the following picture, the battle between higher pressure with drier and milder conditions to our south will do battle with the cooler and more unsettled conditions to the north. This is where I think that we will see a slightly cool scenario heading into the second week.

 

Further on into mid month I expect a change, I’m seeing some signs of the jet stream being deflected northwards and giving the chance of higher pressure to work its way up to UK regions. This would mean that the weather will recover from mid month onwards towards the end of the month.

 

Overall, I believe March will end up with higher than average rainfall and slightly above average temperatures, especially the East.

 

FIRST HALF OF MARCH

Europe_and_North_Atlantic_map

 

SECOND HALF OF MARCH

Europe_and_North_Atlantic_map222

APRIL

 

This is where it starts to get difficult in regards of the forecast. Now there are signals of lower heights developing towards the south of us during this period which would suggest a deflected jet stream, but southerly this time. This allows pressure to build north of that low pressure block. Now if that were to form we could be seeing a drier and warmer than average month, but it is crucial that it sets up like this.

 

I feel that there will be interludes in this month of more unsettled regimes however from the signs I’m seeing, it doesn’t look too bad at all! Of course please take some big caution here as there are limited resources on making this decision.

 

Overall:

Higher than average temps

Average precipitation

 

Europe_and_North_Atlantic_mapmay

MAY

 

Confidence really starts to veer off here, so please take caution, even more so as you progress through the forecast. Now, the signal for the single month of May is shown via lower heights over the UK or slightly below the UK. This would mean above average precipitation and the possibility of average to slightly below average temperatures. Now of course this is just a guideline for now.

QUICK MODEL SUM UP

CFS V2

 

For March it seems as though the main signal is lower pressure especially towards the north, however that block of higher pressure may start to intrude later into the month.

glbz700MonInd1

For April there’s quite a weak signal of lower pressure but this could develop into moving to a more southerly area quite easily. There isn’t really a strong background image here.

glbz700MonInd2

For May it’s shown that there is a  risk of the jet stream being more active and perhaps giving some wetter conditions but this is just a signal at the minute. However, I am watching the risk of that higher pressure to the NE extending.

glbz700MonInd3

JMA LONG RANGE IOD MODEL

 

A very interesting run is seen from the JMA this month. It’s showing higher than average temps over the three months from the east, this also means that the precipitation amounts will be lower from the east.

temp2.glob.MAM2014.1feb2014

KOREAN MODEL

 

The 1month forecast from the Korean model shows high pressure building strongly into late March but early April is seen to get unsettled once again. Could this show the interludes of unsettled weather in April?

z5a_mon

BEIJING CLIMATE MODEL

 

This month’s Beijing Climate Model run shows us that the Atlantic becomes fairly weak and allows warmer air up into the UK over the March-May period. Notice the blues in the Atlantic struggling to pierce through, this is where a southerly wind could perhaps set up.

CS201403_201405GLZ500L1

So there we have it, your first Spring Outlook. In conclusion, I feel that Spring will start cooler and get milder and drier throughout March. I believe that April will follow with a mixture of elements and then May seems to be the most unsettled looking month as of present.

Thank you very much for reading, further updates will be available soon.

Oliver Millin

SPRING OUTLOOK

Hello everyone, I hope you’re all well!

Come the end of this month, the Meteorological Winter of 2013/14 will have come to an end and this opens the doors to the Meteorological Spring of 2014! Spring consists of March, April and May and it can provide the opportunity for plenty of different weather types as it gives a ‘transition’ from winter as such. So, I’m here to give you an outlook on what the long-range models currently say.

First up, we come to the Climate Forecast System Model from America. You’ve probably seen this model before on my long-range forecasts.

The current output for March shows us under a deep blue, which means unsettled at times with wet weather. However March is also shown as milder than average especially on the East Coasts, as shown by the higher pressure over Europe. This would mean that Western UK would be cooler and wetter and that Eastern UK and much of Europe would be drier and warmer.

glbz700MonInd2

The CFS output for April is a similar pattern. There is higher pressure trying to set up over Europe meaning that it will be warmer from the East. However, since there is a more zonal jet stream in this, a large bulk of the UK will be seen to have higher than average rainfall.

glbz700MonInd3

However, for May, the CFS output seems to be a little different. The higher pressure sets up over Europe and then pushes into the UK meaning things will dry up and warm up from the East!

glbz700MonInd4

Next up is the Japanese JAMSTEC model. The outlook for this model, throughout March, April and May, seems to be on the colder note further west and appears to have around average rainfall.

temp2.glob.MAM2014.1jan2014

Thirdly, we have the Beijing Climate Model. Now this is an interesting outlook for you warmer fans out there! What is shown here is low pressure settling out across Greenland and higher pressure (possibly strong) heading in from the East straight into the UK. For March/April/May, this would show a well above normal pattern with drier than average to average precipitation.

CS201403_201405GLZ500L2

Last, but not least, we have the Brazilian Model. This shows lower heights to our East and average heights over us extending north which could suggest an unsettled Europe and possibly a more settled UK in some respects.

Screen Shot 2014-02-10 at 17.18.28

There’s quite a mixed bag there in places. However there is some trend for it to be warmer and drier than average on the whole with higher pressure from the East. As always, this is not a forecast, this is an outlook because the range of time from here is highly inaccurate a lot of the time. My Spring Forecast will be on here on the 1st March 6pm.

Thanks everyone, any feedback welcome.

Ollie Millin.

33 thoughts on “LONG RANGE-SPRING 2014

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  2. Hi from Finland! Very informative read. I think that the UKMO model may be too cold. Three months of easterlies is too much even if averaged. But if that really happens it could lead to really unusual phenomenon. I mean that the Baltic See could freeze over. Last time that happened was 1946-47 if I´m correct.

    We will see that. Mean temperature usually drops below zero ( winter begins ) in northern Finland by 22nd October. It is 16 days away. Hmm, and soon it is Christmas again :D

    • Thank you Marko! Yes interesting that the UKMO model says that, the signs are all very promising, I’ve also noticed that the Siberian snow is really picking up. It has a correlation with cold winters for us. Hope winter is good for you, do you have twitter?
      Ollie

  3. love your theory about the berries Ollie,it may interest you to know I picked 9 lbs of Blackberries here in South west Ireland(kerry) a few weeks ago,never had that much before,our winters apart from the bad ones of a couple of years ago are usually wet and muggy,it will be interesting to see how it works out this year!

  4. I´m bit old-fashioned guy, so I don´t have twitter. I´m pretty sure that there will be a lot of snow all around Europe next winter. You just have to be patient.

  5. hope you are right! I see the present cold spell has already gone totally against what many forecast for this month….just the second week of their forecasts! GIF charts show strong high builds over Scandinavia towards end of month bringing strong east / south east winds.

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